RBI Monetary Policy Review

Appropriate Decision on rate cut by RBI

Yesterday all market analysts, government, and economist was eagerly waiting for  monetary policy review by Reserve Bank of India (RBI).  In my personal opinion RBI governor has done fantastic job. I congratulate him for doing balancing act although it is very tough task in present context. The finance minister is not happy yesterday’s RBI monetary policy review and has decided to go alone on reform agenda.  At the second quarter review of the FY2013 monetary policy the RBI reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 4.25% but kept the policy rates unchanged. Due to the uneasy inflation and uncertainty in the commodity prices driven by global liquidity the central bank continues to hold the policy rates. 

According to the RBI, the inflation rate could moderate towards the beginning of 2013 quarter and after that the policy rate may easy. RBI has also revised the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and inflation target 5.8% and 7.5% respectively. The RBI had two choices here whether he choose growth or choose inflation. No doubt growth has also declined when we compare it with other countries. It is clear that RBI much concern about control the inflation and in other words say, RBI governor is fighting against inflation. I also believe that bringing down inflation is necessary for sustaining our medium-term growth.  Why is inflation remain uncomfortable during entire UPA government tenure.  After analysing this there are two main reasons come out. One if inflation is due to supply side problem and higher interest rate are not going to help it easy. The other reason is increasing spending power of the people. The people are more spending on food and change in consumption patterns. It is also the main reason for inflation. Whether supply is less or demand is high it is the crucial assessment.

Obviously it is the complex challenge of supporting growth and control inflation for RBI. The CRR cut is to make sure that there is comfortable liquidity to allow the credit to go into productive sectors and that liquidity is in deficit, but that deficit is small enough for transmission to take place. Managing inflation is as important as the growth. If we success to achieve low and stable inflation then consumers and investors can make informed decisions.  Fpr investor stable inflation will ensure their  medium term growth. It may be possibly because our currency exchange rate is depreciating and possibly because we have a higher fiscal deficit. So there are number of reasons our country is having high inflation in our growth model.

From government’s newly provided roadmap of reforms till 2017 the RBI has got some comfort on the fiscal figure. We expect the RBI will reduce the CRR rate by another 50 basis points and also cut the key policy rates by the same measure in the remaining part of the fiscal year. 

If you have any query regarding investment please feel free to ask.

Regards,

Arvind Trivedi

Certified Financial Planner

arvind.trivedi79@gmail.com